Life as a Seer
(draft) The times I've spotted what's coming.
In the more innocent days of the early Web, Newsweek Magazine named me a "Software Seer," a description I've always treasured.
So how exactly do you "seer"?
As you might expect, the word scrolls back to seeing, a word that has several layers of meaning. There's the plain evidence of photons hitting your retina and getting interpreted by your mind. There are the mental filters and preconceptions that affect that raw perception. Then there is seeing how things fit, the larger patterns and their implications.
Biblical times gave "seer" a more prophetic sheen, which makes the word more fun.
The way you seer is to notice things before they happen. Bonus points if you describe them well. Here are some examples when I've done that in my career.
1981: Online Is Gonna Rock! After using my my Apple II+'s Hayes modem to play an online game and exchange a file with a reporter, I smelled the Internet. Then faxes arrived.
In 1985, on a project for Russell Ackoff in Buenos Aires, I foresaw the cellular market in Argentina.
In 1988, I wrote a market research report about Neural Networks, the great-grandparents of Generative AI.
In 1990, my Intelligent Document Management research service described the Web. It also brought illustrative diagrams to tech market research.
In 1991, my Continuous Information Environments research service described smartphones (iPhone = 2007).
In 1992, I saw the unification of messaging services.
In 1993, my issues of Release 1.0 about online community presaged social media — optimistically
In 1994, visiting Jerry Kaplan at OnSale, I asked “What if your customers could run their own auctions?” (eBay = 1995)
In 1995, “What's a Zine?” showed up as Weblogs in 1997.
In 1997, I saw Buddy Lists as the future of interpersonal communications.
In 1997, my “Fridge Door” showed up as Wikis and family apps later.
Next: Where I'm Pointing Now.
This article is cross-posted on Substack here, Medium here and LinkedIn here. It's also here in my Brain.