Trump Through the Trust Lens

I'm interested in How to Keep Trump from Winning the 2024 Election.

Let's start with an assertion that may sound weird to anyone who leans Left: Many people trust Trump.

Yup, I'm perfectly aware that Trump pegs the lies-per-minute meter, that he can't be trusted to honor a contract or election, and that he uses lies strategically. I'll get to those.

Understanding why Trump's followers trust him is important, especially if you believe his constant lying disqualifies him from being trustworthy. Misunderestimating Donald Trump Is Very Dangerous. It's a big reason why he still has the power he has.

You trust Dr. Evil. You trust Dr. Evil to try to kill Austin Powers, but to do so in a slipshod way that always fails. It's part of the Austin Powers Plot Bible, right?

I use Dr. Evil as an example to say that you can trust someone whose intentions you don't like. A funny example is a safe example, one that people can hear.

Knowing this about Dr. Evil gives you a wealth of information, enough that you can begin predicting his next moves (though predicting sea bass with flashlights would be a long shot; granted).

One useful trust model separates cognitive trust from emotional (affective) trust. Emotional trust is: does this person have good intentions, are they trying to do right by me, and do I like them? Cognitive trust is: does this person have the capability to carry out their threats/promises, and do I think they will? For me, emotional trust is an easy nope, but cognitive trust totally works.

Leaving the safe harbor of humor, I'll repeat: there are many reasons why Trump's followers trust him. The biggest of these is likely:

The conservative payoff

If you're very Conservative (not even full MAGA), Trump has paid off better than any Conservative president since Reagan, who definitely changed the course of the country. Consider:

• Roe v Wade is gone.
• In its wake, many states triggered draconian abortion laws.
• A "fetal personhood" movement is rolling.
• The Supreme Court now tilts hard Right (with McConnell's devious leadership).
• The Federal bench has been larded with deep Conservatives (also McConnell).

Trump has successfully undermined:

• The Left, which has been consistently wrong-footed (until This Kamala Moment).
• Mainstream media (enemy of the people??).
• Elections.
• Science.
• Facts.
• Social justice, from wokeness to DEI.
• Our trust in one another.
• Countless norms and institutions.

He's having a side conversation.

He understands how to use old and new media to own the space. Arguably, he understands modern power better than almost anyone.

Trump has normalized execrable speech.

You can even trust that Trump and his family will try to enrich themselves at the public's expense, that he will make plenty of stupid decisions, and that he will own the news cycle.

Trump has weaponized trust

As a result, Trump has more elbow room than most anyone.

This is a companion piece to Trump and Constraints. It also pairs well with these videos about Trump and his strategies, which I posted in 2020.

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