Ukraine and Russia Nuggets (DRAFT)

a post in Rob's Blog by Rob O'Keefe

by Rob O'Keefe

also see Nuggets, Narratives, and Points of View

Note: This is just a TEST of using a format of a statement or assertion in bold with supporting statements underneath. The points about Russia or Putin are incomplete.

From an Obisidian/markdown point of view, there may be benefit in having each "nugget" in its own markdown file.

FEEL FREE TO EDIT BELOW!!

Putin is committing war crimes

• targeting civilian buildings
• targeting nuclear plants
• invading Ukraine at all, no matter what his justificaiton is

Putin Aggressively Pushes Beyond GeoPolitical Norms

• Chechnya (3 years after defeat goes back in)
• Using Radiological weapons in London to kill dissident
• Uses chemical weapons for assassination
• Goes into Syria
• Crimea
• Ukraine invasion

Putin Blindspots or Miscalculations

• Underestimated resistance by Ukrainians
• Over estimated capability of Russian military
• Misjudged morale of Russian troops

Putin Goals (Short and Long Term)

• Putin Stated Demands:
  • Crimea recognized as part of Russia,
  • Donbas republics recognized as independent,
  • military neutrality by not joining NATO,
  • far-right groups excluded from their forces
• Russia Negotiating Position
  • Russia ceases fire and withdraws
  • Ukrainian "neutrality" without NATO
  • Kyiv keeps its army but can't host foreign bases
  • Russian language gets legal status in Ukraine
• Unstated Goals
  • disrupt NATO with mixed priorities (energy, economics)
  • Weaken the US Dollar as the global settlement currency, in favor of.... China, Bitcoin, other?
  • Align some countries against the USD: China, Saudi Arabia, India,
  • Disrupt US political stability
  • Take/Reclaim land that was formerly USSR
• What's most important to Putin
  • afraid of Covid significantly (or even a targeted virus)
  • amassed personal wealth so that is done
  • Historical legacy - does not compare to Soviet leaders, but looks back to Czars pre-Soviet)

What was the state of Ukraine prior to invasion

• Military buildup - "defensive" missiles
• Far right active in Ukraine (Avov group)
• Zelensky had low approval ratings

Putin Misinformation and/or Narratives

• Nazis are taking over Ukraine
• If you don't speak Russian or you push back on Russia-fication, you are a Nazi and are against us
• US is aggressor
• Ukraine is an illegitimate, militaristic, Nazi-based regime

• Russia is offering peace, and a "new round of peace talks," not military attacks
• Russia has "established control" over many Ukranian cities, and has handily neutralized most of Ukraine's military infrastructure

West/US Narratives and/or Misinformation

• Ukraine is free to join NATO if they want
• Russia is the aggressor
• Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, Russian military has performed much more poorly than Russia expected
• Ukraine is putting up good defenses, Ukrainian military is being battered, but holding up better than anyone expected
• Ukrainian cities are battered, but not being conquered (yet)

Other Narratives and Unpopular Opinions

• the US Industrial complex wants a steady flow of conflict and war
• Russia is taking East Ukraine steadily, there is no way for Ukraine to prevail
• US has trained and armed right wing Nazis in Ukraine
• US will back away from Zelensky soon

How does Cyber fit into this?

• Are there, or will there be cyber attacks on the West?

Russian military is underperforming

• Putin does not care
• Mounting Russian casualties

What is Biden relationship with Ukraine

• this was his issue while he was VP to Obama
• He was long term member/leader of the Foreign Relations Committee

Have we been on this path since the break up of the USSR?

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